Marex Spectron Bullion Thoughts
I suppose I should have known that as soon as I became friendly towards gold, we would find the high!! In my defence, I did advocate buying dips rather than getting long up on the highs, but none the less, gold has performed abysmally over the last week and looks set to stay in a sideways mode to lower mode.
Once we failed again just below 1300, the writing was on the wall. This coincided with yet another rate rise from the Fed and this combined with abnormal silence from Trump and general peace and quiet in the world has contributed to gold’s pullback. We are now back towards the initial support area around 1245/50 and if this breaks we may well see another attempt to test the lower range towards 1220. However as always, everything in the gold market revolves around the dollar, US economic figures and geopolitical events, so future moves really do depend on this. It is all very well looking at charts and attempting to determine where we might go next, but one adverse headline can blow the entire move into the weeds, so holding longer term positions is a challenge. As I have said repeatedly this year, I would keep gold in my portfolio because of potential crises, but none the less trade the ranges in the meantime. This means selling above 1275 and buying below 1225. We are in no man’s land at the moment and as such I would be on the side line.
Today sees zero in the way of figures and may be a quiet one as a result. In fact this week sees little in the way of major data releases, so the market may have to attempt to trade on its own, which could be difficult!!